Much has changed since the last major skirmishes in the console wars. To put things in perspective, when the Xbox 360 debuted in 2005, Twitter wouldn’t exist for another 8 months (July 2006), Facebook was around but wouldn’t open to the general public for another 10 months (September 2006), and Netflix didn’t offer their streaming service for another year and change, in January 2007.
The original iPhone came out five months after that in June 2007 (8 months after the Playstation 3 and Nintendo Wii both debuted in November 2006). Hulu launched publicly nine months after that in March 2008. And the first iPad didn’t launch until two years after that in April 2010.
So what’s really changed since the last major iteration of consoles?
Mobile use has grown exponentially
If someone asked what mobile games you play in 2005, you probably talked about the Nintendo DS or the Playstation Portable. There is a very small chance you actually mentioned a game on your phone, in which case that game was probably a card game, Snake, or if you were a very advanced user, Breakout.
Now, mobile platforms are THE biggest platform for games and they are still growing. The chart below shows a breakdown of the number of games available for every major platform (that small group of blocks in the upper left represents games on ALL of the major consoles of the past 30 years).
It would be easy to argue that the vast majority of games on iOS and Android are either a) complete crap, b) repeat copies (free and paid versions of the same game are counted twice), or c) knockoffs of the few popular titles. That said, if we take the very conservative estimate that just 1% of iOS games is actually decent, that would leave us with roughly 1220 games, roughly the same number of games available in total for the Wii.
App store economics have made casual gaming even more popular than the Wii did.
The original Wii’s success is attributed primarily to its focus on casual gamers. Worldwide, the Wii outsold the Xbox 360 and Playstation 3 by 30% at ~100 million consoles to the 360’s ~75 million and PS3’s ~70 million.
Average game prices for these systems clock in around $15 (maybe even less when you factor in used games and downloadable titles). Average game prices for games on iOS, on the other hand, clock in around $0.84. When you can get 15-20 casual games for the price of one console title, the cost of “striking out” on half or more of them evens out pretty quickly. Realistically though, casual gamers can probably get 10-20 decent games without paying a dime thanks to free-to-play models.
The results of this transition can be seen even among major publishers. One need only look at Hearthstone from Blizzard to see that the “epic” game makers want to get in on the casual, mobile, free-to-play market before it gets away from them. Whether this means they’ll start moving away completely from traditional games and models may still be too early to tell, but Hearthstone is hardly the canary in the coalmine. Many other major publishers have been reselling old content on mobile platforms for years, and others have been actively developing specifically for the new platforms.
The living room has gotten even more complicated.
One of the major complaints about the Xbox One reveal was just how much time was spent not demoing video games at all. The first half of the press event focused solely on the TV and multitasking capabilities of the new machine, with Kinect motion and voice controls, quick switching to live TV, and more. Console makers see one of their roles as “simplifying” the living room. Buy our console, and you won’t have to connect these 5 or 6 other devices!
Earlier console wars focused on exclusive games, hardware specs, and controllers. Everything revolved around the games and how they were played, even up to the release of the Wii – when the Wii Remote was such a radical departure from the two-handed boomerang controllers. This time around, the controllers and even games are all pretty standardized (the Wii U uses Wii remotes for every controller but the primary one, after all), but what has changed drastically from previous generations is how much emphasis is placed on non-game content like Netflix, Hulu, and exclusives like NFL or game-franchise video content. (Steven Spielberg is really involved in creating a new Halo series? I’m intrigued and I don’t even really care that much for Halo.)
Social networks have become a part of EVERY experience.
What was the biggest change to the Playstation 4 controller? A dedicated Share button. Humans are social creatures, and our devices are increasingly a part of how we experience life. So obviously those devices *need* that capability built in, right? I’m unconvinced on the Share button, but — hold on, there are kids on my lawn.
The truth is, as social networks become more ingrained in everyday life, they will play a more central role in all of the technology that we surround ourselves with. Expect more share buttons, more ways to share your gaming experience, and more networks to connect with.
The winner doesn’t have to take all. And that’s okay.
The last console war didn’t result in a clear winner. Yes, the Wii outsold the Playstation 3 and Xbox 360 on underpowered hardware, but plenty of people still purchased the Sony and Microsoft platforms. No one could argue that either of them was a flop. The difference now is that the arena for battle is much larger, with competitors of all shapes and sizes. Mobile platforms are taking guerrilla potshots even as the major contenders grandstand and perform maneuvers before their next forced march.
The biggest winners will be those that find a way to cement their position as the centerpiece of the living room, sharing content beyond games and connecting people through multiple platforms, including mobile and social. There is plenty of room for both epic, expensive games and cheap or free-to-play games in the battles ahead.
Why don’t you join me on the couch with a controller, your mobile phone, or a tablet and have some popcorn?
Published: Jun 4, 2013 03:20 pm